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Is Show HN dead? No, but it's drowning

acnops | 2026-02-17 10:29 UTC | source
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Is Show HN Dead? No, But It's Drowning

Feb 17, 2026 · Arthur Cnops

A few days ago I posted to Show HN. I had good fun building that useless little internet experience. The post quickly disappeared from Show HN's first page, amongst the rest of the vibecoded pulp. And to be clear, I'm fine with that.

The behavior on Show HN was interesting to see though. So I pulled the data.

What's Happening

Show HN of course isn't dead. You could even say it's more alive than ever. What has changed is the volume of posts and engagement per post. It's only natural when more projects are being built in a single weekend. There's less "Proof of Work".

From the business side of this, Johan Halse recently called this the Sideprocalypse: the end of the small indie developer's dream. Every idea has been built, marketed better, and SEO'd into oblivion by someone with more money.

Some cool projects aren't getting through this noise, which is a pity. Here are a few I thought were interesting:

  1. Neohabit
  2. OpenRun
  3. uForwarder

I just upvoted them!

Now, let's look at some data.

Volume Is Exploding

0 1.2k 2.4k 3.6k 4.8k 6.0k 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02 2024-08 2025-02 2025-08 2026-01 4.8k Show HN Volume Feb 2023 – Jan 2026 Show HN

0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0% 20.0% 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02 2024-08 2025-02 2025-08 2026-01 15.2% Show HN Share % of all HN stories Show HN

The Graveyard Is Growing

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02 2024-08 2025-02 2025-08 2026-01 37.2% 26.2% 1-Point Posts % stuck at exactly 1 point Show HN Other

Show HN started out better than regular submissions. Now it's significantly worse.

The Shrinking Window

How long does a Show HN post stay on page 1 before being pushed off? During peak hours (US daytime):

0.0h 3.0h 6.0h 9.0h 12.0h 15.0h 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02 2024-08 2025-02 2025-08 2026-01 2.9h Est. Time on Page 1 Est. hours before pushed off (peak) Show HN

Discussion Is Dying Too

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02 2024-08 2025-02 2025-08 2026-01 3.1 Comments per Post Avg comments on Show HN posts Show HN

So Is Show HN Dead?

No. There's just more noise, and less opportunity to get attention and have a discussion with other folks on HN about your project. Some gems go completely unnoticed. Maybe something for HN to think about: how do these subjective "gems" get more spotlight? How does HN remain the coolest place to talk about the coolest tech?

411 points | 353 comments | original link

Comments

verdverm | 2026-02-17 10:32 UTC
was just asking for something like this yesterday, would be interesting to see how account age factors in
bko | 2026-02-17 10:50 UTC
Reminds me of the quote: "Nobody Goes There Anymore, It’s Too Crowded"

Some of it is "I wish things I think are cool got more upvotes". Fare enough, I've seen plenty of things I've found cool not get much attention. That's just the nature of the internet.

The other point is show and share HN stories growing in volume, which makes sense since it's now considerably easier to build things. I don't think that's a bad thing really, although curation makes it more difficult. Now that pure agentic coding has finally arrived IMO, creativity and what to build are significantly more important. They always were but technical ability was often rewarded much more heavily. I guess that sucks for technical people.

bartread | 2026-02-17 11:00 UTC
> "I wish things I think are cool got more upvotes"

HN has a very different personality at weekends versus weekdays. I tend to find most of the stuff I think is cool or interesting gets attention at the weekends, and you'll see slightly more off the wall content and ideas being discussed, whereas the weekdays are notably more "serious business" in tone. Both, I think, have value.

So I wonder if there's maybe a strong element of picking your moment with Show HN posts in order to gain better visibility through the masses of other submissions.

Or maybe - but I think this goes against the culture a bit - Show HN could be its own category at the top. Or we could have particular days of the week/month where, perhaps by convention rather than enforcement, Show HN posts get more attention.

I'm not sure how workable these thoughts are but it's perhaps worth considering ways that Show HN could get a bit more of the spotlight without turning it into something that's endlessly gamed by purveyors of AI slop and other bottom-feeding content.

bko | 2026-02-17 12:52 UTC
I think it's just numbers. There are maybe a few dozen people that see your post on /new. That's a tiny sample size, not a good proxy for how interesting the post is. You see this on Reddit as well where the same exact post gets 1 upvotes and then finally blows up.

Chasing clout through these forums is ill advised. I think people should post, sure. But don't read into the response too much. People don't really care. From my experience, even if you get an insanely good response, it's short lived, people think its cool. For me it never resulted in any conversions or continued use. It's cheap to upvote. I found the only way to build interest in your product is organic, 1 on 1 communication, real engagement in user forums, etc.

jacquesm | 2026-02-17 11:15 UTC
This is different. It's clear that the driver here is the ease with which you can use AI to spit out slop projects.
marxisttemp | 2026-02-17 11:19 UTC
This is a forum called Hacker News. It’s for technical people. Perhaps these LLM-generated slop projects could get posted on Product Hunt or somewhere focused on the creative product side of tech and not technical knowledge and discussion
wewewedxfgdf | 2026-02-17 10:51 UTC
I am a major advocate for AI assisted development.

Having said that, it used to feel part of an exclusive club to have the skills and motivation to put a finished project on HN. For me, posting a Show HN was a huge deal - usually done after years of development - remember that - when development of something worthwhile took years and was written entirely by hand?

I don't mind much though - I love that programming is being democratized and no longer only for the arcane wizards of the back room.

nkrisc | 2026-02-17 11:21 UTC
> I don't mind much though - I love that programming is being democratized and no longer only for the arcane wizards of the back room.

Programming has long been democratized. It’s been decades now where you could learn to program without spending a dollar on a university degree or even a bootcamp.

Programming knowledge has been freely available for a long time to those who wanted to learn.

wewewedxfgdf | 2026-02-17 11:25 UTC
It's better if you don't have to learn to program to make applications.

In the future it will seem very strange that there was a time when people had to write every line of code manually. It will simply be accepted that the computers write computer programs for you, no one will think twice about it.

Nextgrid | 2026-02-17 12:12 UTC
There's a difference between documentation and LLMs. An LLM can be your own personal tutor and answer questions related to your specific code in a way no documentation can. That is extremely helpful until you master the programming language enough.
altairprime | 2026-02-17 13:03 UTC
Programming has been democratized in terms of “time invested in programming” by AI, which has resulted in exactly what happens to any high-investment community when a tool-assisted method of avoiding that investment is developed. You could ask any newspaper or movie script submissions reviewer before AI what percent of what they receive as uninvited-submissions is even slightly worth their time and they’ll look at you with the deadest eyes in the world and say “zero percent”. What invention led to their industries being buried in meaningless (relative to pre-invention) submissions that took a thousandth of the effort to produce than they did prior to it, without the editorial staff being scaled accordingly? The typewriter.

The obvious counterpoint is that AO3 is brilliant, which it is: give people a way to ontologize themselves and the result is amazing. Sure, AO3 has some sort of make-integer-go-up system, but it reveals the critical defect in “Show HN”: one pool for all submissions means the few that would before have been pulled out by us lifeguards are more likely to drown, unnoticed, amidst the throngs. HN’s submissions model only scales so far without AO3’s del.icio.us-inherited tagging model. Without it, tool-assisted creative output will increasingly overwhelm the few people willing to slog through an untagged Show HN pool. Certainly I’m one of them; at 20% by weight AI submissions per 12 hours in the new feed alone, heavily weighted in favor of show posts, my own eyes and this post’s graphs confirm that I am right to have stopped reading Show HN. I only have so much time in my day, sorry.

My interest in an HN post, whether in new or show or front page, is directly proportional to how much effort the submitter invested in it. “Clippy, write me a program” is no more interesting than a standard HN generic rabble-rousing link to a GotHub issue or a fifty-page essay about some economics point that could have been concisely conveyed in one. If the submitter has invested zero personal effort into whatever degree of expression of designcraft, wordcraft, and code craft that their submission contains, then they have nothing to Show HN.

In the rare cases when I interact with a show post these days, I’ve found the submissions to be functionally equivalent to an AI prompt: “here’s my idea, here’s my solution, here’s my app” but lacking any of the passion that drives people to overcome obstacles at all. That’s an intended outcome of democratization, and it’s also why craft fairs and Saturday markets exercise editorial judgment over who gets a booth or not. It’s a bad look for the market to be filled with sellers who have a list of AI-generated memes and a button press, whose eyes only shine when you take out your wallet. Sure, some of the buttons might be cool, but that market sucks to visit.

Thus, the decline of Show HN. Not because of democratization of knowledge, but because lowering the minimum effort threshold to create and post something to HN reveals a flaw-at-scale of community-voting editorial model: it only works when the editorial community scales as rapidly as submissions, which it obviously has not been.

Full-text search tried to deprecate centralized editorial effort in favor of language modeling, and turned out to be a disastrous failure after a couple decades due to the inability of a computer to distinguish mediocre (or worse) from competent (or better). HN tried to deprecate centralized editorial effort and it has survived well enough for quite some time, but gestures at Show HN trends graphs it isn’t looking good either. Ironically, Reddit tried to implement centralized moderation on a per-community basis — and that worked extremely well for many years, until Reddit rediscovered why corporations of the 90s worked so hard to deprecate editorial staff, when their editors engaged in collective action against management (something any academic journal publisher is intimately familiar with!).

In that light, HN’s core principle is democratizing editorial review — but now that our high-skill niche is no longer high-skill, the submissions are flooding in and the reviewers are not. Without violating the site’s core precepts of submission egality and editorial democracy, I see no way that HN can reverse the trend shown by OP’s data. The AO3 tagging model isn’t acceptable as it creates unequal distinctions between submissions and site complexity that clashes with long-standing operator hostility towards ontologies. The Reddit and acsdemic journal editorial models aren’t acceptable as it creates unequal distinction between users and editors that clashes with long-standing operator hostility towards exercising editorial authority over the importance of submissions. And HN can’t even limit Show HN submissions to long-standing or often-participating users because that would prevent the exact discoveries of gems in the rough that show used to be known for.

The best idea I’ve got is, like, “to post to Show HN, you must make several thoughtful comments on other Show HN posts”, which puts the burden of editorial review into the mod team’s existing bailiwick and training, but requires some extra backend code that adds anti-spam logic, for example “some of your comments must have been upvoted by users who have no preexisting interactions with your comments and continued participating on the site elsewhere after they upvoted you” to exclude the obvious attack vectors.

I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes. A visionary founded left them a site whose continuing health turn out to hinge upon creating things being difficult, and then they got steamrolled by their own industry’s advancements. Phew. Good luck, HN.

verdverm | 2026-02-17 11:49 UTC
> Show HN was a huge deal - usually done after years of development

Just saw one go from first commit to HN in 25m

netdevphoenix | 2026-02-17 17:33 UTC
> For me, posting a Show HN was a huge deal - usually done after years of development

This is still possible. Vibe coders are just not interested in working on a piece of software for years till it's polished. It's a self selection pattern. Like the vast amount of terrible VB6 apps when it came out. Or the state of JS until very recently.

fuzzfactor | 2026-02-17 21:05 UTC
Read this at first as AI arrested development ;)
weird-eye-issue | 2026-02-17 10:53 UTC
I did a Show HN a few years ago on another account. It got no upvotes but that website/app has generated over $6m in revenue in that time (over $4.5m profit). Not sure what my point is but thought I'd share
wewewedxfgdf | 2026-02-17 10:55 UTC
Show us the Show HN!
weird-eye-issue | 2026-02-17 10:59 UTC
Our revenue isn't public and this is a throwaway
prodigycorp | 2026-02-17 10:56 UTC
what channel did you find success in?
weird-eye-issue | 2026-02-17 10:59 UTC
Affiliates. They made it blow up overnight with an existing audience
mchaver | 2026-02-17 11:00 UTC
I think HN is a very particular group of people and not representative of the market for a lot of the products we make. We tend to like open-source things, ask lots of technical questions and complain about minute things. Also, Show HNs tend to perform better if they are quick to use (no sign in required, don't need to download, etc.).
marginalia_nu | 2026-02-17 11:02 UTC
It's also a pretty big lottery. Two nearly identical projects can get very different receptions depending on the phase of the moon.
weird-eye-issue | 2026-02-17 11:07 UTC
Yes, this was in a marketing niche and I knew it wasn't a good fit
pdyc | 2026-02-17 11:32 UTC
mine got lot of upvotes and huge traffic but it died after few days. I think it has more to do with novelty of idea rather than commercial interest.
majicDave | 2026-02-17 17:15 UTC
This happens all the time, it’s a good thing to really keep in mind. All of my best projects were dismissed initially and continue to be. There is a reddit post where I announced Blockheads to a handful of “looks like a crappy Minecraft ripoff” comments. It went on to be played by 50 million people.
jstrieb | 2026-02-17 17:42 UTC
If those announcement posts don't take off, how do you end up finding a community of users/players?
voy707 | 2026-02-17 19:02 UTC
What the actual f. I am one of those 50 million people, played Blockheads all the time as a teen and had no idea I would randomly stumble over the dev around here. Great work indeed, thanks for the fond memories I made on my 4th gen iPod touch, playing that game :)
reconnecting | 2026-02-17 10:54 UTC
Perhaps it's the right moment to start an AI Show HN (Vibe HN as recommended above), as I assume more than half of Show HN is now from ChatGPT/Claude, and it's impossible to cut through this noise with something reliable that humans craft over years.

It's fair to give the audience a choice to learn about an AI-created product or not.

sixtyj | 2026-02-17 11:17 UTC
I have talked with some friends who are long-time programmers (20+ experience). Even they (all) admit that they use Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, Google Antigravity or AI Studio - you name it.

So in future everything’s gonna be “agentic”, (un)fortunately.

Everytime I write about it, I feel like a doomsayer.

Anthropic admits that LLM use makes brain lazy.

So as we forgot remembering phone numbers after Google and mobile phones came, it will be probably with coding/programming.

reconnecting | 2026-02-17 11:27 UTC
OK, let's say there are two categories of software now.

One is where the human has a complete mental map of the product, and even if they use some code generating tools, they fully take responsibility for the related matters.

And there is another, emerging category, where developers don't have a full mental map as it was created by an LLM, and no one actually understands how it works and what does not.

I believe these are two categories that are currently merged in one Show HN, and if in the first category I can be curious about the decisions people made and the solutions they chose, I don't give a flying fork about what an LLM generated.

If you have a 'fog of war' in your codebase, well, you don't own your software, and there's no need to show it as yours. Same way, if you had used autocomplete, or a typewriter in the time of handwriting, and the thinking is yours, an LLM shouldn't be a problem.

Tade0 | 2026-02-17 11:28 UTC
I don't think so. At the end of the day it's just a tool.

Case in point: aside from Tabbing furiously, I use the Ask feature to ask vague questions that would take my coworkers time they don't have.

Interestingly at least in Cursor, Intellisense seems to be dumbed down in favour of AI, so when I look at a commit, it typically has double digit percentage of "AI co-authorship", even though most of the time it's the result of using Tab and Intellisense would have given the same suggestion anyway.

jack_pp | 2026-02-17 11:24 UTC
I suspect the OG, grass fed, organic, gluten free, no AI Show HN will be dead.

If I used LLMs to generate a few functions would I be eligible for it? What constitutes "built this with no/ minimal AI"?

Maybe we should have a separate section for 80%+ vibe coded / agent developed.

argee | 2026-02-17 19:57 UTC
HN already has a mechanism for flagging posts. If flagging low effort/trivial show HN posts were normalized, I suspect it would work just fine: if a human can't easily decide whether or not to flag it, they likely wouldn't.

As dang posted above, I think it's better to frame the problem as "influx of low quality posts" rather than framing policies having to do explicitly with AI. I'm not sure I even know what "AI" is anymore.

acnops | 2026-02-17 14:06 UTC
AI is eating up everything. So I don't think there will be two groups.
yoyohello13 | 2026-02-17 17:50 UTC
Maybe. It's basically "people who know how shit works" vs "people who don't know how shit works". I hope we still have at least some people in category 1 or else we just end up with Wall-E.
wewewedxfgdf | 2026-02-17 10:54 UTC
If show HN is getting diluted and flooded then maybe yhere is opportunity for someone to make a website for showing off your shiny new project.

Something rapid fire, fun, categorized maybe. Just a showcase to show off what you've done.

verdverm | 2026-02-17 11:54 UTC
HN is an unique tech niche, I suspect many hobby projects will get more attention in their less technical niches or applications
marginalia_nu | 2026-02-17 10:56 UTC
I don't actually mind AI-aided development, a tool is a tool and should be used if you find it useful, but I think the vibe coded show HN projects are overall pretty boring. They generally don't have a lot of work put into them, and as a result, the author (pilot?) hasn't generally thought too much about the problem space, and so there isn't really much of a discussion to be had.

The cool part about pre-AI show HN is you got to talk to someone who had thought about a problem for way longer than you had. It was a real opportunity to learn something new, to get an entirely different perspective.

I feel like this is what AI has done to the programming discussion. It draws in boring people with boring projects who don't have anything interesting to say about programming.

koakuma-chan | 2026-02-17 11:01 UTC
One thing about vibe coding is that unless you are an expert in what you have vibe coded, you have no idea if it actually works properly, and it probably doesn't.
numpad0 | 2026-02-17 12:05 UTC
Worse yet, if you're not an expert(with autodidacts potentially qualifying), your ideas won't be original anyway.

You'll be inventing a lot of novel cicular apparatus with a pivot and circumferencrial rubber absorbers for transportation and it'll take people serious efforts to convince you it's just a wheel.

mchaver | 2026-02-17 11:16 UTC
I see a lot of projects repeated: screen capture tool, LLM wrapper, blog/newsletter, marketing tool for reddit/twitter, manage social media accounts. These things have been around for a while so it is really easy for an LLM to spit them out for someone that does not know how to code.
hypercube33 | 2026-02-17 12:00 UTC
Agreed. I'm over here working on Quake 2 mods and reverse engineering Off world trading company so I can finish an open source server for it using AI.

Thing is I worked manually on both of these a lot before I even touched Claude on them so I basically was able to hit my wishlist items that I don't have time to deal with these days but have the logic figured out already.

mmarian | 2026-02-17 14:29 UTC
It's because the common belief that you should build copies of whatever SaaS makes decent money. What they don't mention is that people need to have a very good reason why they decide to go for your bare-bones MVP instead of a well-established solution.
airstrike | 2026-02-17 11:30 UTC
we need a Vibe HN
reconnecting | 2026-02-17 11:47 UTC
listen_to_what_the_man_said.stm
fuzzfactor | 2026-02-17 11:50 UTC
That may be something.

Having too may subs could get out of hand, but sometimes you end up with so much paperwork generated so fast that it needs its own dedicated whole drawer in your filing cabinet ;)

elcapitan | 2026-02-17 12:12 UTC
Prompter News
co_king_5 | 2026-02-17 18:00 UTC
encom | 2026-02-17 21:09 UTC
This, but unironically. Every submission should have an "AI?" checkbox, to indicate if the content submitted is about AI or made by AI, because I'm just absolutely fed up with 2/3 of HN front page being slop or meta-slop.

I'm not an anti-AI luddite, but for gods sake talk about (ie. submit) something else!

verdverm | 2026-02-17 11:42 UTC
> the vibe coded show HN projects are overall pretty boring

concur, perhaps a dedicated or alternative, itch.io like area named "Slop HN:..."

jbreckmckye | 2026-02-17 12:26 UTC
One of the great benefits of AI tools, is they allow anyone to build stuff... even if they have no ideas or knowledge.

One of the great drawbacks of AI tools, is they allow anyone to build stuff... even if they have no ideas or knowledge.

It used to be that ShowHN was a filter: in order to show stuff, you had to have done work. And if you did the work, you probably thought about the problem, at the very least the problem was real enough to make solving it worthwhile.

Now there's no such filter function, so projects are built whether or not they're good ideas, by people who don't know very much

SCdF | 2026-02-17 12:53 UTC
Agreed, and were gonna see this everywhere that AI can touch. Our filter functions for books, video, music, etc are all now broken. And worst of all that breaking coincides with an avalanche of slop, making detection even harder.

There is this real disconnect between what the visible level of effort implies you've done, and what you actually have to do.

It's going to be interesting to see how our filters get rewired for this visually-impressive-but-otherwise-slop abundance.

SirFatty | 2026-02-17 13:09 UTC
"One of the great benefits of AI tools, is they allow people to build stuff, even if they have no ideas or knowledge."

Wait, what? That's a great benefit?

fainpul | 2026-02-17 14:04 UTC
People who got "enabled" by AI to produce stuff, just need to learn to keep their "target audience of one"-projects to themselves. Right now it feels like those fresh parents who show every person they meet the latest photos / videos of their baby, thinking everybody will find them super cute and interesting.
yoyohello13 | 2026-02-17 17:24 UTC
Sometimes 'gatekeeping' is a good thing.
nativeit | 2026-02-17 17:28 UTC
I have yet to see any of these that wouldn’t have been far better off self-hosting an existing open source app. This habit of having an LLM either clone (or even worse, cobble together a vague facsimile) of existing software and claiming it as your own is just sort of sad.
gitgud | 2026-02-17 20:50 UTC
> so projects are built whether or not they're good ideas

Let’s be honest, this was always the case. The difference now is that nobody cares about the implementation, as all side projects are assumed to be vibecoded.

So when execution is becoming easier, it’s the ideas that matter more…

zahlman | 2026-02-17 20:50 UTC
To be fair, one probably needs at least one idea in order to build stuff even with AI. A prompt like "write a cool computer program and tell me what it does" seems unlikely to produce something that even the author of that prompt would deem worthy of showing to others.
yieldcrv | 2026-02-17 21:39 UTC
one of the base44 ads is hilarious about this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLdaIxDM-_Y

dudeinhawaii | 2026-02-17 21:40 UTC
The other element here is that the vibecoder hasn't done the interesting thing, they've pulled other people's interesting things.

Let's see, how to say this less inflamatory..

(just did this) I sit here in a hotel and I wondered if I could do some fancy video processing on the video feed from my laptop to turn it into a wildlife cam to capture the birds who keep flying by.

I ask Codex to whip something up. I iterate a few times, I ask why processing is slow, it suggests a DNN. I tell it to go ahead and add GPU support while its at it.

In a short period of time, I have an app that is processing video, doing all of the detection, applying the correct models, and works.

It's impressive _to me_ but it's not lost on me that all of the hard parts were done by someone else. Someone wrote the video library, someone wrote the easy python video parsers, someone trained and supplied the neural networks, someone did the hard work of writing a CUDA/GPU support library that 'just works'.

I get to slap this all together.

In some ways, that's the essence of software engineering. Building on the infinite layers of abstractions built by others.

In other ways, it doesn't feel earned. It feels hollow in some way and demoing or sharing that code feels equally hollow. "Look at this thing that I had AI copy-paste together!"

xnx | 2026-02-17 12:27 UTC
My favorite part about people promoting (and probably vote stuffing) their closed-source non-free app that clone other apps is when people share the superior free alternatives in the comments.
rubslopes | 2026-02-17 13:08 UTC
I predict that now that coding has become a commodity, smart young people drawn to technical problem-solving will start choosing other career paths over programming. I just don't know which ones, since AI seems to be commoditizing every form of engineering work.
argee | 2026-02-17 14:20 UTC
When I was growing up (millennial) it seemed to me that the default for smart young people drawn to technical problem solving was something like aerospace, software or hardware was more or less a fun hobby, like it was for Steve Wozniak. Nobody cared whether or which of these were a commodity, which is what happens when you actually enjoy something.

These days I do see a lot of people choosing software for the money. Notably, many of them are bootcamp graduates and arguably made a pivot later in life, as opposed to other careers (such as medicine) which get chosen early. Nothing wrong with that (for many it has a good ROI), but I don’t think this changed anything about people with technical hobbies.

When you’re young, you tend not to choose the path the rest of your life will take based on income. What your parents want for you is a different matter…

Gigacore | 2026-02-17 14:09 UTC
I shared a well-thought vibecoded app on ShowHN last month. It took a few hours to get POC and two weeks to fully develop a product to meet my requirements. Nobody cared.
ohyoutravel | 2026-02-17 17:10 UTC
You’re part of the problem.
marginalia_nu | 2026-02-17 18:05 UTC
Sqfty?

I mean it's a real problem, but it's also a solved problem, and also not a problem that comes up a lot unless you're doing the sort of engineering where you're using a CAD tool already.

I don't doubt it's useful, and seems pretty well crafted what little I tried it, but it doesn't really invite much discussion.

onetimeusename | 2026-02-17 17:11 UTC
I think that's a fear I have about AI for programming (and I use them). So let's say we have a generation of people who use AI tools to code and no one really thinks hard about solving problems in niche spaces. Though we can build commercial products quickly and easily, no one really writes code for difficult problem spaces so no one builds up expertise in important subdomains for a generation. Then what will AI be trained on in let's say 20-30 years? Old code? It's own AI developed code for vibe coded projects? How will AI be able to do new things well if it was trained on what people wrote previously and no one writes novel code themselves? It seems to me like AI is pretty dependent on having a corpus of human made code so, for example, I am not sure if it will be able to learn how to write very highly optimized code for some ISA in the future.
wreath | 2026-02-17 17:52 UTC
> Then what will AI be trained on in let's say 20-30 years? Old code? It's own AI developed code for vibe coded projects?

I’ve seen variation of this question since first few weeks /months after the release of ChatGPT and I havent seen an answer to this from leading figures in the AI coding space, whats the general answer or point of view on this?

atomic128 | 2026-02-17 19:08 UTC
Exactly. Prose, code, visual arts, etc. AI material drowns out human material. AI tools disincentivize understanding and skill development and novelty ("outside the training distribution"). Intellectual property is no longer protected: what you publish becomes de facto anonymous common property.

Long-term, this is will do enormous damage to society and our species.

The solution is that you declare war and attack the enemy with a stream of slop training data ("poison"). You inject vast quantities of high-quality poison (inexpensive to generate but expensive to detect) into the intakes of the enemy engine.

LLMs are highly susceptible to poisoning attacks. This is their "Achilles' heel". See: https://www.anthropic.com/research/small-samples-poison

We create poisoned git repos on every hosting platform. Every day we feed two gigabytes of poison to web crawlers via dozens of proxy sites. Our goal is a terabyte per day by the end of this year. We fill the corners of social media with poison snippets.

There is strong, widespread support for this hostile posture toward AI. For example, see: https://www.reddit.com/r/hacking/comments/1r55wvg/poison_fou...

Join us. The war has begun.

fastasucan | 2026-02-17 21:24 UTC
>So let's say we have a generation of people who use AI tools to code and no one really thinks hard about solving problems in niche spaces.

I don't think we need to wait a generation either. This probably was a part of their personality already, but a group of people developers on my job seems to have just given up on thinking hard/thinking through difficult problems, its insane to witness.

plagiarist | 2026-02-17 21:42 UTC
AI will be trained on the code it wrote, our feedback on that code, and the final clean architecture(?) working(?) result after that feedback.
8note | 2026-02-18 02:54 UTC
i dont think we'll see that, because the niche spaces are people from other disciplines who do some code but dont consider coding important.

theyve already thought about it before reaching for code as a solution

DrewADesign | 2026-02-17 17:19 UTC
” The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.”

— Tom Cargill, Bell Labs

Some day I’m going to get a crystal ball for statistics. Getting bored with a project was always a thing— after the first push, I don’t encounter like 80% of my coding side projects until I’m cleaning— but I’ll bet the abandonment rate for side projects has skyrocketed. I think a lot of what we’re seeing are projects that were easy enough to reach MVP before encountering the final 90% of coding time, which AI is a lot less useful for.

tyre | 2026-02-17 17:28 UTC
> I’ll bet the abandonment rate for side projects has skyrocketed

My experience is the opposite. It’s so much easier to have an LLM grind the last mile annoyances (e.g. installing and debugging compilation bullshit on a specific raspberry pi + unmaintained 3p library versions.)

I can focus on the parts I love, including writing them all by hand, and push the “this isn’t fun, I’d rather do something else” bits to a minion.

greatgib | 2026-02-17 10:59 UTC
An additional factor missing in the post I think Is AI.

Before, projects were more often carefully human crafted.

But nowadays we expect such projects to be "vibe coded" in a day. And so, we don't have the motivation to invest mental energy in something that we expect to be crap underneath and probably a nice show off without future.

Even if the result is not the best in the world, I think that what interest us is to see the effort.

sarreph | 2026-02-17 12:01 UTC
It's reasonably clear from the second sentence in the post that the uptick in submissions can be largely attributed to AI-assisted projects.

> The post quickly disappeared from Show HN's first page, amongst the rest of the vibecoded pulp.

The linked article[0] also talks at length about the impact of AI and vibe-coding on indie craftsmanship's longevity.

[0] - https://johan.hal.se/wrote/2026/02/03/the-sideprocalypse/

bakugo | 2026-02-17 11:00 UTC
Sadly, this problem isn't specific to HN either, any reddit sub that is even remotely related to software is absolutely flooded with "look at my slop" posts.

It feels like the age of creating some cool new software on your own to solve a problem you had, sharing it and finding other people who had the same problem, and eventually building a small community around it is coming to a close. The death of open source, basically.

koakuma-chan | 2026-02-17 11:00 UTC
Yeah, I don't think that LLM output is appropriate for Shown HNs.